Live Blog of Albanian Election

Berisha_2013

Albania’s Prime Minister and leader of the Democratic Party Sali Berisha delivers a speech during a pre-election rally in the centre of Tirana, June 21, 2013. REUTERS/Arben Celi

Live Blog of Albanian Election

How The World Votes, June 24, 2013

Polls have closed in Albania, and the election has already been marred by violence. A supporter of the opposition Socialist Party of Albania was shot outside a polling station yesterday. This election is key in whether or not Albania makes it into the European Union. Both sides have claimed “victory”, but the results are expected to be close. Stay tuned here for all of the news in Albania regarding election results and news (all times are Central Daylight Time).

Because of the live blog, World Election News will not be posted today, but will continue tomorrow. Unfortunately, the Central Election Commission of Albania is only doing results by region and not the entire country, so results might be all over the place. Still, the elections are very similar to Italy, where seats are awarded by region and political parties standing alone must reach a 3% threshold to gain seats or 5% threshold for alliances. 8:00 AM – 23.77% of polls have reported in Albania. So far, there is a 53.75% turnout throughout Albania. Currently, the Socialist Party has 40.1% of all votes in Albania. Their coalition partner, the Socialist Movement for Integration, has 11.6% of the vote. The incumbent center-right Democratic Party has 31.02% of the vote. Their coalition partners the Party for Justice, Integration and Unity have 2.55% of the vote, and Republican Party have 3.06% of the vote. Minor parties are the nationalist Red and Black Alliance, with .49% of the vote, and the New Democratic Spirit, with 1.44% of the vote. So far, the Red and Black Alliance has not played a factor in the race, but the New Democratic Spirit are close to the 3% threshold in Tirana (2.39%), Diber (2.52%) and Durres (2.49%). If they top 3% in those regions, they can win seats. My current seat projection with the results so far is that the Alliance for a European Albania, headed by the Socialists, will capture 86 seats while the Alliance for Employment, Prosperity and Integration will capture 54 seats.

8:42 AM – No new election numbers to report, but I have just done a swing analysis of the districts as well as the country as a whole. Currently, most of the swing is not in favor of the Socialist Party, but instead their coalition partners the Socialist Movement for Integration (LSI). Nationally, the LSI is at 11.6% of the vote, whereas in 2009 they were at 4.9%. The Socialist Party is actually down .8% to their 2009 totals. The Democratic Party is down 9.08%, from 40.% in 2009 to 31.02% currently.

10:00 AM – Again, no new numbers from Albania, but here is a breakdown in the swing of the vote by district.

Berat: 7.7% swing from Socialists/Democrats to LSI

Diber: 3.98% swing from Socialists/Democrats to LSI

Durres: 1.83% swing from Democrats/LSI to Socialists

Elbasan: 6.75% swing from Socialists/Democrats to LSI

Fier: 5.36% swing from Socialists/Democrats to LSI

Gjirokaster: 6.12% swing from Socialists/Democrats to LSI

Korce: 5.59% swing from Socialists/Democrats to LSI

Kukes: 2.22% swing from Socialists/Democrats to LSI

Lezhe: 1.4% swing from Socialists/Democrats to LSI

Shkoder: 3.8% swing from Socialists/Democrats to LSI

Tirana: .17% swing from Socialists/Democrats to LSI

Vlore: .19% swing from Socialists/Democrats to LSI

Country-wide: 3.75% from Socialists/Democrats to LSI These swings were calculated by taking the traditional swing formula from British elections, calculating both the Democrats to Socialists swing as well as the Democrats to LSI swing, and then taking the difference. Traditionally, the swing would be showed for the Socialists, since they are in the lead in many of these districts. But, since the LSI has vastly improved, they should be figured into the factor. According to traditional methods, the Socialists have a 4.14% swing nationwide in their favor. But since votes for the Socialists is actually lower than what they received in 2009, I feel this in inaccurate. Therefore, the LSI should be noted in any swing analysis, which is why I am showing the difference.

10:26 AM: The Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe has just published a press release. Click here for the release.

10:40 AM: The above press release mentions the ongoing political problem between the political parties in Albania to some extent. As far as the electoral process, however, there was no mention of vote fraud or major irregularities. OSCE stated “on election day, voting proceeded relatively well, albeit with some procedural irregularities. Closing procedures and the receipt of ballot box at counting centres were assessed more positively. Counting was delayed in many areas due to the late appointment of counting officials”. There are some other issues they mention, but nothing to raise alarms quite yet. Their biggest complaint electorally was the lack of counting officers, which is why the results are taking so long. This was due to a political dispute between political parties and the Central Electoral Commission. Still, overall the process seems to work. OSCE also mentioned that the presence of election observers “generally enhanced transparency”.

11:09 AM – New results in from Albania. 37.2% of polls have reported in Albania. So far, there is a 53.02% turnout throughout Albania. Currently, the Socialist Party has 40.65% of all votes in Albania. Their coalition partner, the Socialist Movement for Integration, has 11.36% of the vote. The incumbent center-right Democratic Party has 30.17% of the vote. Their coalition partners the Party for Justice, Integration and Unity have 2.69% of the vote, and Republican Party have 2.85% of the vote. Minor parties are the nationalist Red and Black Alliance, with .49% of the vote, and the New Democratic Spirit, with 1.48% of the vote. New Democratic Spirit are close to the 3% threshold in Tirana (2.33%), Diber (2.94%)and Durres (2.50%). If they top 3% in those regions, they can win seats. Also, independent candidate Dritan Prifti Vlash in Fier is at 2.86%. My current seat projection with the results so far is that the Alliance for a European Albania, headed by the Socialists, will capture 86 seats while the Alliance for Employment, Prosperity and Integration will capture 54 seats.

5:41 PM – New numbers from Albania – New results have come in from Albania, and the number seem to show that smaller parties within coalitions seem to be doing well. Here is the latest. With just over half the polling locations reporting (52.8%), the Socialist-lead coalition has a nationwide total of 58.36% of the vote. The center-right coalition is at 38.88%.

Of the individual parties, the Socialist Party has 40.96% of the vote, which is close to their total for the last election. The center-right coalition leader the Albanian Republican Party has 30.01% of the nationwide vote. In third place, the surprising Socialist Movement for Integration is at 11.16%. In 4th place is the Albanian Republican Party, aligned with the center-right coalition, with 2.82% of the vote. The Party for Justice, Integration and Unity, who is aligned with the center-right, is at 2.76%.

The non-aligned New Democratic Spirit has a nationwide total of 1.57%, but has been able to get over 3% in Diber (3.19%). Therefore, they might get one seat if this trend holds. As for the Red and Black Alliance, they are currently at .51% and not playing a factor in this race.

6:06 PM – New results from Albania.

With 61.18% of the vote in, numbers remain relatively the same. The Socialist-led coalition is ahead nationwide with 58.2% of the votes. The center-right coalition has 39.04%. New Democratic Spirit is at 1.58% nationwide and Red and Black Alliance is unchanged.

As for the parties, very little change has happened. The Socialist Party is at 41.05% with the center-right Democratic Party at 30.14%. The Socialist Movement for Integration is at 11.04%. The Albanian Republican Party is at 2.83%, with the Party for Justice, Integration and Unity at 2.8%

Seat projections remain the same with the Socialist-led coalition is a majority of seats. The New Democratic Spirit still remains above the threshold in Diber, so they might get one seat. Also in Fier, Dritan Prifti Vlash is over 3% as well at 3.42% and is on track to gain a seat.

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